China's polysilicon production capacity at the end of 2018 or meeting global demand

Abstract There has been a saying that "what the Chinese produce, what is surplus; what the Chinese need, what is scarce." Regardless of whether this sentence is really universal, at least the first half of the sentence is applicable to China's polysilicon industry. of. Regardless of China’s gradual break from high in 2009...

There have been sayings that "what the Chinese produce, what is surplus; what the Chinese need, what is scarce." Regardless of whether this sentence is really universal, at least the first half of the sentence is applicable to China's polysilicon industry. .

Regardless of China's gradual breakage of high-purity polysilicon technology barriers since 2009, polysilicon prices have lost 10 times in spot prices in 7 years, and the peak profit margin exceeded 800%. We must know that since 2011, the price of polysilicon has been "diving" all the way. From the end of the year, it has fallen from the peak price of 730 yuan/kg to the low of 210 yuan/kg. In the following years, it has not even exceeded This price, up to now, has been in the range of 100~165 yuan/kg.

However, despite the rapid development of the world's photovoltaic industry, especially the rapid development of the domestic photovoltaic industry, China's major polysilicon producers have expanded their production capacity, especially polysilicon-photovoltaic one-stop production enterprises, in order to effectively reduce costs, It is a "hand shot."

Coupled with the imported part, due to China's demand for dense materials, polysilicon will still maintain a certain amount of imports. In January 2018, China's polysilicon imports were 16,262 tons, an increase of 29.7%. For China's polysilicon enterprises, it is undoubtedly a cut out of the "cake" that is not enough.

According to statistics, in 2017, China's domestic production of polysilicon enterprises has an effective capacity of 276,000 tons, an additional capacity of 66,000 tons; production of 242,000 tons, accounting for 56% of global production. In 2018, China's current polysilicon production capacity is as high as 302,000 tons, and it is expected to form 576,400 tons of capacity by the end of the year.

It should be noted that in recent years, with the advancement of technology, on the one hand, the utilization efficiency of polysilicon material (polysilicon material is a direct raw material for producing single crystal silicon) is increasing, and on the other hand, the photoelectric conversion efficiency is also continuously improved. According to relevant data, in 2017, the silicon wafer corresponding to 1kg silicon material was 224W. In 2018, with the development of technology (especially the advancement of slicing technology) and the application of monocrystalline silicon in the photovoltaic industry, the silicon corresponding to 1kg silicon material The film is upgraded to 280W. In 2017, the national silicon wafer production equivalent component was 87.6GW; in 2018, domestic polysilicon production could reach 433,000 tons (the actual production and capacity are inconsistent due to equipment maintenance and other reasons), and the silicon wafer production equivalent component is 121.24GW.

In fact, according to forecasts, the total demand for photovoltaic modules in the world in 2018 is 110 GW. Considering that China's new capacity for polysilicon in 2018 will basically be released by the end of the year, that is, by the end of 2018, China's polysilicon production capacity will meet the global demand. Demand! Not only that, these capacity has even exceeded global demand, that is to say, China's polysilicon production capacity may have been in excess in the end.

Perhaps this is somewhat alarmist, because the global demand for PV modules in 2018 may far exceed the predicted 110GW, but the polysilicon production lines that have been launched in China have indeed reminded the surplus crisis. By then, a new round of survival of the fittest will be staged again. Taking precautions, China's polysilicon enterprises must be prepared enough to survive.

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