Inflation pressure is slowly slowing down, loosening monetary policy or causing bubbles to become bigger. The People's Bank of China issued a notice saying that this Thursday (23rd) suspended the issuance of central bank bills, which is the first time in the past five months, and the second time the central bank suspended the regularity during the year. The issuance of central bank bills. Some analysts pointed out that the extremely tight capital is the main reason why the central bank suspended the central bank bill and injected liquidity into the market. Judging from the current economic overheating and the signs of slowing inflationary pressures, the market is increasingly concerned about whether the central bank will adjust the current tightening of monetary policy in the second half of the year. Chen Dongqi, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that the macro policy in the second half of the year will not be relaxed soon, but will continue to be tight. Tightening liquidity to ease monetary policy is expected to heat up this year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio six times, raising interest rates twice, controlling liquidity in the market through tight monetary policy, and thus eliminating the monetary factor in inflation. Become the normal state of operation of the central bank under a prudent monetary policy. As the economic growth momentum slows, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) may usher in a turning point. Chen Dongqi said that the impact of high inflation on economic growth is weakening. He expects CPI to show a significant high drop in the fourth quarter. The full year high is expected to be in June and July, and July may be at 6% or higher. Although inflationary pressures may slow down in the future, expectations of future central bank interest rate hikes still leave market concerns about currency liquidity tightening. In this regard, Guo Tianyong, a professor at the School of Finance of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that commercial banks have sufficient funds in the case of relatively loose monetary policy, and the amount of loans is relatively large. After the tightening of the currency, the entire amount of money has tightened, and the banks have to retain some rigid credit demand. The total amount of funds is limited, and the liquidity will not be as abundant as before, which will cause the current financing difficulties for SMEs. problem. However, Wei Jining, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that the real pressure for SME financing is from the financing platform of local governments. Since the large amount of funds went out in 2009, many governments have gone to the project, and after strengthening supervision, the financial pressure has increased, so the voice from the local government is likely to demand the relaxation of monetary policy. Relaxing monetary policy will lead to asset bubble According to the economic data released this year, the market generally expects that China's economic growth will slow down in the next two or three quarters, which will help curb inflation, which will prompt the central bank to consider loosening monetary policy. However, Chen Changhua, head of research at Credit Suisse China Securities, has different opinions. He believes that the slowdown in inflation is the key to the central bank's difficulty in loosening monetary policy. Chen Changhua analyzed that compared with the two high points in 2004 and 2008, it can be seen that the current domestic food inflation is not very serious, but the CPI inflation of the service industry is very obvious. This means that the highest point of this round of CPI may be lower than the peak of 8.7% in 2008, but the obvious expansion of inflation means that the CPI will slow down this round. In addition, Chen Dongqi also believes that monetary policy will continue to be tight because the current local investment enthusiasm is still very high, if the policy is relaxed too early, it will lead to price increases again. At the same time, although the current currency growth rate is slowing down, the volume of money still shows a gradual expansion trend, and it takes time to digest the pressure of the currency in the previous period. Experts say that loosening monetary policy too quickly may cause asset bubbles to continue to grow. Wei Jianing believes that according to Japan's previous experience in the 1980s, after implementing a proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, the Japanese economy has experienced a big bubble. In contrast, Germany has withstood the pressure and avoided the bubble economy. He said that if we relax the money at this time, we may repeat the mistakes of Japan.
There are different pressures to maintain the pressure. Although the market will worry about the hard landing in the future economic growth, most experts said that they should continue to maintain stability in the second half of the macro policy. The chief economist of Guotai Junan believes that the current macro-control is indeed in a dilemma. On the one hand, our house prices still maintain a relatively high position; in addition, the increase in labor costs and the continuation of inflation make our entire economy only fine-tuned. “To fight against inflation, we should use both quantitative tools and price-based tools.†Wang Songqi, deputy director of the Institute of Finance at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that quantitative tools can be used less and more price-based tools. In addition, raising the floating space of the exchange rate has a significant effect on resisting input inflation. In the face of the expected increase in interest rate hikes and tight credit market conditions, in the face of the dilemma of SMEs, economist Yu Sheng resistance pointed out that the government must implement a monetary policy of “guarantee, pressure, and treatment†to alleviate financial austerity for SMEs. The impact of this, to resolve the "money shortage" of SMEs; at the same time regulate private finance, relax financial regulation, and guide private capital to return to the real economy through financial innovation. Chen Dongqi also said: "The future monetary policy will be adjusted, because the funds of SMEs are now relatively tight, and it is necessary to give a little 'water' properly, otherwise it will be "thirsty" many SMEs, so there will be some flexibility to relax. He believes that the previous monetary policy mainly adopted to increase the deposit reserve ratio. Although the relevant departments indicated that there is still some space, if the quantitative tools continue to be used, it will cause damage to the money supply and demand relationship. Therefore, the next phase of monetary policy regulation will be replaced by raising interest rates. (People's Daily Overseas Edition)
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