Weekly review of building materials: inventory performance is not the same price
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This week, the building materials market is weaker, more upside down, and the overall rise and fall is between 10 and 70 yuan/ton. The upswings in South China and Central China are slightly more obvious. The market conditions in the north and the south are different. At present, the inventory pressure in the north is obviously larger than that in the southeast region. Therefore, the mentality after the holiday is different. Under the influence of the external exploration atmosphere, the decline in the north is slowing down in the latter half of the week, but the transaction is uncoordinated and the market price in the south is low. It has not been able to continue to move upwards, and the main epidemic has stabilized at the end of the weekend. After the holiday, the news was biased, so that the trend of the snails was acceptable, and the price of ore continued to rise. As a result, the policy of the leading steel mills in the region was mostly based on the flat push, further supporting the current market price; the sales pressure in the first half of the month was not obvious, and the business is now more Keep a wait-and-see attitude. 
Second, cost analysis
This week, the regions were mixed and slightly different. According to the cost model, as of October 10, the profit margin of domestic small and medium-sized steel enterprises 20mm third-grade rebar is negative 313 yuan / ton, compared with the national holiday (negative 328 yuan / ton) profit is increasing 15 yuan / ton; 6.5mm The profit margin of the high line is minus RMB 230/ton, which is an increase of RMB 6/ton from the profit before the National Day holiday (negative 236 yuan/ton). The level of profitability has changed slightly. After the holiday, the market capital shortage has eased, and end users have gradually replenished their stocks. Market transactions are expected to pick up, and raw material costs remain high. Steel prices may be stronger next week. In terms of raw materials, steel mills have maintained normal production in the near future, and support for the rigid demand of raw materials will still fluctuate at a high level. On the whole, it is expected that the profit margin will improve slightly next week. 
Third, the analysis of major city stock changes
This week, domestic building materials dominated the market. According to statistics: Shanghai rebar stocks were 308,100 tons, down 0.29% from the previous month, down 5.36% last week; Guangzhou was 364,200 tons, down 2.15% from the previous month, down 5.1% last week; Beijing 476,000 tons, down 1.18% from the previous month. Week increased by 2.69%; Shanghai wire stocks of 117,600 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous month, a decrease of 1.3% last week; Guangzhou 314,900 tons, the same as the previous month, an increase of 9.76% last week; Beijing 40,000 tons, a decrease of 2.91% from the previous week, last week Increase by 8.14%.
The production of steel mills is basically normal, and the market has a certain amount of arrivals; after the opening of the market, the terminal has a small amount of volume, some markets are rising, the inventory pressure is too large, the price of the merchants is still loose, the overall shipments are mainly stocks, and the inventory is increased. Get a certain amount of digestion. In addition, according to the China Iron and Steel Association statistics, the inventory of key steel enterprises reached 13.22 million tons at the end of mid-September, an increase of 6.18% from the end of August, the highest level since late June. However, considering that the environmental protection efforts are gradually increasing, most steel mills are under the cost line, and the supply pressure will be restrained in the later period. The demand for continuous heavy volume is also limited. It is expected that the inventory will be slightly increased in the next week, and the merchants will still “de-stockâ€. Mainly. 
Fourth, futures analysis 
From the daily chart, the low-level platform of the K-line is mainly oscillating, and the red columns and green columns alternate with each other; the trend indicator KDJ is diverging upward; the leading indicator MACD green column continues to shrink, showing signs of redness.
From the hourly chart of the main contract, the snail is still running in the blue short-selling range, and the trend indicator RSI platform fluctuates; the leading indicator MACD spreads upwards and breaks through the zero-axis.
On the whole, the snail will continue to fluctuate at a low level next week, paying attention to the pressure of 3630 and supporting 3580.
2. Next week's outlook
Pre-judgment of the snail market: the main operating range of the snail 1401 next week is 3570-3630, focusing on the competition of three key points of 3580, 3600 and 3630;
3. Next week's operation recommendations
Multi-header suggestion: Term screw 1401, short-term multi-band operation, day-to-day operation, position control at 5%, pay attention to 3600 platform competition, pressure 3630; medium-term wait and see. Pay special attention to daily futures operation recommendations.
Short-selling suggestion: Snail 1401, a short-term short-small participation, also pay attention to the 3600 platform competition, the position control is around 8%, support 3580; medium-term wait and see. Pay special attention to daily futures operation recommendations.
V. Next week's trend prediction and operational recommendations
1. Next week trend prejudgment
Judging from the main factors affecting the trend of the building materials market, the negative has a slight advantage: although the housing prices have risen, the regulation and control policies on the real estate market have become more stringent and detailed, which has a greater impact on the new construction, which directly leads to the effective demand release of the steel market. Weakness; the implementation of environmental governance in North China still takes time; and the problem of overcapacity is difficult to solve effectively in the short term. In October, the weather in the north will gradually turn cold, and demand will further shrink, and the “Northern North†will follow The southern market has brought greater inventory pressure, but considering the short-term cost, there is still some support, and it is expected that the weak will be the next week.
2. Operational recommendations
Shipment-based, wary of market risk.