The oil kinetic energy is obviously insufficient

There are many highlights in the early stage of supporting the oil market, such as weather factors in the US soybean production area, anti-dumping investigations on the US biodiesel, the impact of the South American weather on the planting process, domestic environmental inspections and inspections, and centralized stocking of pre-holiday oils. Although these factors have played a big role in boosting the price trend of the early oil market, as the market continues to digest, the factors driving the rise in oil prices have become insufficient, and the pressure on the market has increased.

Inventory increased again

After May, domestic palm oil stocks continued to fall, and the range was relatively large. As of mid-August, the minimum stocks were around 290,000 tons, which was 50% lower than that in May. After that, palm oil stocks recovered. Compared with history, the current stock level of 365,000 tons is still low, but the stock is already in the process of reconstruction.

The recent high point of domestic soybean oil commercial stocks appeared in the middle and late August, with the highest close to 1.45 million tons. Nowadays, the domestic soybean oil commercial stocks have once again increased, which has greatly broken the previous high point. It shows that the overall supply pressure of the oil and fat market has increased.

Palm oil production impact is critical

According to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, the output in September was 1.78 million tons, down 1.7% from the previous month, the second consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, the palm oil inventory in September exceeded 2 million tons for the first time since February 2016, reaching 2.02 million tons. , a 4% increase in the chain. Although the output is lower than the market expectation, but the inventory is higher than the market expectation, the market price will begin to be suppressed. As the future enters the traditional low season, the expectation of this pressure will become more and more obvious.

Malaysian shipping agency data showed that palm oil exports in September were 1,372,990 tons, an increase of 10.4% compared with August; Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 16.1% from September 1 to 25, compared with 16.1% in the first half of the year. The increase last month was 22.19%. Through the comparison of the increase, it can be found that in September, the export of Malaysian palm oil was weakened, and the increase was gradually reduced. At present, production and sales jointly affect inventory levels and trends, inventory growth, production changes, and low domestic inventory operations. These factors will moderate some of the pressure, but will not lead to a reversal of supply and demand.

Structural contradiction between supply and demand

Judging from the consumption characteristics of domestic oil and fats market, the weather turned cold in August-September, and oil consumption increased. However, during this period, there was a new and old alternation period. The structural contradiction between supply and demand existed. In addition, the long-term holiday was prepared in advance, which further boosted the market. Short-term strength. After the holiday, the short-term consumption of the market was relatively restrained. As the national reserve sold, the import shipping period was enlarged, and the new beans gradually went on the market. The structural contradiction between market supply and demand reappeared, but the trend changed. Before, consumption was “home”, but currently It is the supply of "singing drama".

The data shows that on September 29, the first auction of the State Reserve soybeans, a total of 300,000 tons, the transaction rate reached 71.8%; on October 13 will be the second auction, soybean sales will continue until the end of October, just to continue the domestic soybean new Bean listing period. From the perspective of imported soybean shipments, soybean arrivals in October reached 7.6 million tons, and in November it was expected to be 9 million tons, which was also roughly maintained in December. Although there may be changes in the quantity or rhythm of arrivals, in the face of the concentrated listing of soybeans in the northern hemisphere, the short-term supply pressure of the market must exist and increase.

Technical surface is suppressed

Technically, since August 2015, the low point of the US soybean oil has been gradually improved (monthly level), but the overall improvement or intensity is converging, and the overall upside price of the futures price is limited. In the short term, around 35 cents. The pressure is greater.

From the overall trend, the market has not formed obvious or new upward momentum. Based on such characteristics, the oil trend oscillates and the rise is more cautious. From the perspective of changes in market kinetic energy, the initial first round of bottoming out is more “squeaky”. After rebounding momentum is consumed, the current market is still in the energy accumulation period, and the market needs time and substantial guidance.

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